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Am I on the right track with my investment strategy at 48? Looking for 13-14% CAGR over 10 years.

Ramalingam

Ramalingam Kalirajan  |7336 Answers  |Ask -

Mutual Funds, Financial Planning Expert - Answered on Nov 06, 2024

Ramalingam Kalirajan has over 23 years of experience in mutual funds and financial planning.
He has an MBA in finance from the University of Madras and is a certified financial planner.
He is the director and chief financial planner at Holistic Investment, a Chennai-based firm that offers financial planning and wealth management advice.... more
Asked by Anonymous - Nov 05, 2024Hindi
Money

Hi Sir, I am seeking your expertise to review my current asset allocation strategy, as I am planning for a 10-year investment horizon. I am currently 48 years old, Moderate risk taker, looking 13-14% CAGR, and would like to ensure that my portfolio is well-structured to meet my long-term financial goals. Proposed Target Asset Allocation: (A) -Equity Instruments: 45% (a)-Direct Stocks: 10% (Large Cap / Blue Chip Stocks: 3%, Mid Cap Stocks: 2%, Small Cap Stocks: 2%, Solar/Green Fuel Stocks: 1%, AI / Semiconductor / Data Storage / EV Stocks: 1%, FMCG Stocks: 1%. (b). International Equity: 5%). (c). Mutual Fund Equity: 30% (Large Cap Funds: 9%,Mid Cap Funds: 6%,Small Cap Funds: 5%,Flexi Cap Fund: 3%,Multicap Fund: 2%,Aggressive Hybrid: 2%,NPS (Equity): 3%) (B). Debt Instruments: 40% ( FD/TFD: 40%, KVP: 8%, NSC: 6%, Debt Mutual Funds: 6%, NCD/Corporate Bonds: 2%, PPF: 2%, NPS (Debt): 2%) (C). Real Estate: 10% (Land/Forms: 7%, House/Flats: 3%) (D). Gold: 5% (Physical Gold: 5%, Sovereign Gold Bonds: 2%, Gold ETF: 2%) Questions: 1. Does this allocation appear appropriate for my age and risk profile? 2. Are there any modifications you would recommend to enhance potential growth or reduce risk? How does this allocation align with current market trends, particularly in sectors like green energy and technology? Thank you in advance for your insights and recommendations! Best regards,

Ans: Let’s assess each section of your proposed strategy, along with suggestions to help optimise your returns within your moderate risk tolerance and 10-year horizon.

1. Equity Instruments - 45%
Your equity allocation is well-diversified across direct stocks, international equity, and mutual funds. Let’s examine each segment:

Direct Stocks (10%): Holding 10% in direct stocks across large, mid, and small-cap stocks, as well as thematic sectors like green fuel and technology, adds growth potential. However, actively monitoring individual stocks and staying updated on market conditions is crucial for these segments.

Considerations: Thematic investments (e.g., solar, AI, semiconductor, and FMCG) add future-focused growth potential but can be volatile. Consider reducing thematic stocks slightly if you prefer a more conservative approach. A 7-8% direct stock allocation could still capture growth while managing risk.

International Equity (5%): Exposure to international equity is excellent for diversifying risk and gaining from foreign markets. Focus on countries with strong technology and industrial sectors, such as the US or emerging markets.

Mutual Fund Equity (30%): Your mix of large-cap, mid-cap, small-cap, flexi-cap, multi-cap, and aggressive hybrid funds provides balance. However, it’s advisable to stick with regular funds through an MFD, especially if you lack time for active tracking. Regular funds offer valuable guidance through certified financial planners, which may help in uncertain markets.

2. Debt Instruments - 40%
Debt provides stability to your portfolio. The allocation across fixed deposits, debt mutual funds, KVP, NSC, NCDs, PPF, and NPS (debt) is balanced.

Fixed Deposits and Term Deposits (20%): FDs offer security but relatively lower returns, especially given rising inflation. You could reduce FD holdings and allocate more to debt mutual funds for potentially higher returns without excessive risk.

KVP, NSC, and PPF: These are secure instruments offering fixed returns and tax-saving benefits. However, ensure that these instruments align with your tax strategy since the interest is subject to tax as per your income slab.

Debt Mutual Funds (6%): Increasing this portion slightly could improve returns. Debt mutual funds also provide better liquidity options compared to FDs. However, remember the new tax rules, where debt mutual fund gains are taxed as per your income tax slab.

3. Real Estate - 10%
Your 10% allocation to real estate is reasonable. Since you are looking at forms of land and residential property, it is critical to consider the liquidity of these investments.

Consideration: Real estate often involves high transaction costs and is less liquid. You may want to weigh this allocation against other investment avenues for improved liquidity.
4. Gold - 5%
Gold is a strong hedge against inflation and market downturns. Your allocation across physical gold, sovereign gold bonds, and gold ETFs is diverse.

Physical Gold (1-2%): Physical gold can be useful but adds storage costs and risks. You could consider shifting more of this portion to sovereign gold bonds and ETFs, which are easier to liquidate and don’t incur storage issues.

Sovereign Gold Bonds (2%): Sovereign Gold Bonds offer a fixed interest component and are tax-efficient if held till maturity. These are excellent for long-term holding.

Current Market Trends and Sectors
Green Energy: Green energy has high growth potential. However, these stocks can be volatile due to policy changes and economic shifts. Limit exposure to avoid over-concentration.

Technology (AI, Semiconductor, EV): The technology sector is growing rapidly, especially in AI and EV. Consider focusing on large-cap or mutual fund options for stability.

Tax Implications and Portfolio Adjustments
Capital Gains on Mutual Funds: For equity mutual funds, long-term capital gains (LTCG) above Rs 1.25 lakh are taxed at 12.5%, while short-term gains are taxed at 20%. Debt mutual funds are taxed as per your income slab, so balancing these investments can optimise tax efficiency.

Reduce FDs for Tax Efficiency: FDs, though safe, attract tax on interest income, which may reduce overall returns. Balancing some FD allocation with debt funds could be tax-efficient and yield higher returns.

Recommendations for Optimal Portfolio Structure
Consider Balanced Growth through Mutual Funds: Given your moderate risk profile, shifting a portion from direct stocks and FDs to actively managed mutual funds could reduce the need for active monitoring.

Optimise Debt Allocation with Debt Funds: A higher allocation to debt mutual funds could enhance returns, with improved liquidity and tax efficiency. Explore funds that align with your investment goals and time horizon.

Review Thematic Stock Exposure: Some exposure to high-growth thematic stocks is good but consider capping this to reduce risk. Mutual funds focused on sectors like green energy and technology can offer exposure with professional fund management.

Final Insights
Your asset allocation strategy is commendable and largely balanced. A few adjustments could potentially enhance your portfolio’s growth, liquidity, and tax efficiency over time.

Consider reducing exposure to direct stocks and fixed deposits.

Increase debt fund allocation for better returns and tax management.

Reassess the thematic exposure, especially for emerging sectors like green energy and technology.

Balance between actively managed funds and stable debt options to keep your risk aligned with your moderate risk tolerance.

By implementing these adjustments, you can optimise your portfolio’s growth while managing risk effectively. Over the 10-year horizon, this should position you well to achieve your financial goals.

Best Regards,

K. Ramalingam, MBA, CFP,
Chief Financial Planner
www.holisticinvestment.in
https://www.youtube.com/@HolisticInvestment
Asked on - Nov 10, 2024 | Answered on Nov 10, 2024
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Thanks a lot Sir for your valuable suggestions, I have selected following funds for investment, looking for your kind advise. Parag Parikh Flexi Cap Fund- 35%, Mirae Asset Midcap Fund 20%, Nippon India Small Cap Fund 15%, ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund 25% and International Fund Motilal Oswal Nasdaq 100 FOF 5%. Regards
Ans: Your fund selection shows a well-diversified approach across flexi-cap, mid-cap, small-cap, and balanced categories. However, consider reducing exposure to international funds due to currency and market-specific risks. Consulting a Certified Financial Planner like us can help tailor these allocations to your specific goals, risk profile, and investment horizon for optimal returns and balance.

Best Regards,

K. Ramalingam, MBA, CFP,

Chief Financial Planner,

www.holisticinvestment.in
https://www.youtube.com/@HolisticInvestment
DISCLAIMER: The content of this post by the expert is the personal view of the rediffGURU. Users are advised to pursue the information provided by the rediffGURU only as a source of information to be as a point of reference and to rely on their own judgement when making a decision.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this post by the expert is the personal view of the rediffGURU. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related document carefully before investing. The securities quoted are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. Users are advised to pursue the information provided by the rediffGURU only as a source of information and as a point of reference and to rely on their own judgement when making a decision. RediffGURUS is an intermediary as per India's Information Technology Act.

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