Hello sir, I have started investing recently through monthly SIPs of Rs.5000 in ICICI equity and debt fund, Rs.6000 in Bandhan Elss fund, Rs.7500 in UTI Nifty 50, Rs.5000 in Parag Parikh Flexi cap, Rs.2000 in Mirae Asset Large Cap and...

Hello sir, I have started investing recently through monthly SIPs of Rs.5000 in ICICI equity and debt fund, Rs.6000 in Bandhan Elss fund, Rs.7500 in UTI Nifty 50, Rs.5000 in Parag Parikh Flexi cap, Rs.2000 in Mirae Asset Large Cap and Rs.1500 in kotak Flexi cap Also, I have 300000 in PPF. And I am planning to invest 150000 yearly in it and 2.18 lakh already invested in ELSS funds since the last 3 years and their XIRR is 15.10% today. How much return I can expect in 15 years? What changes I should do in my portfolio?

Ans: It's commendable to see your proactive approach towards investing. Your portfolio showcases a balanced mix across equity, debt, and tax-saving instruments, which is a good start.

Now, looking ahead 15 years is a bit like gazing into a crystal ball. The returns you can expect will depend on various factors like market conditions, fund performance, and economic trends. While past performance can give us some insights, it's not a guarantee of future returns.

Your current XIRR of 15.10% from ELSS funds over three years is a positive sign. This suggests that your investments are performing reasonably well.

As for the PPF and the SIPs, they're both solid choices for long-term investing. PPF offers tax-free returns and has a guaranteed interest rate, while SIPs provide the benefit of rupee-cost averaging and potential market-linked returns.

However, to optimise your portfolio further, we might consider:

Diversification: Ensure a broader asset allocation across various fund categories.
Review and Rebalance: Periodically review and rebalance your portfolio to align with your goals and risk tolerance.
Tax Efficiency: Keep an eye on tax implications to maximise post-tax returns.
Given the dynamic nature of markets, it's essential to review and adjust your portfolio periodically.

Ans: Firstly, congratulations on building a strong SIP commitment of Rs. 1.3 lakh per month.

Your current portfolio value of Rs. 35 lakh shows good financial discipline and vision.

You have wisely allocated across flexi cap, mid cap, and small cap categories.

However, the spread can be fine-tuned for better diversification and lower overlap.

You both are at a good age (41 and 37 years) to pursue aggressive yet balanced growth.

Your time horizon till 2030 (around 5-6 years) needs a careful strategy now.

With a disciplined approach, Rs. 3 crore corpus is definitely achievable by 2030.

However, expecting 15% annualised return consistently till 2030 is ambitious.

It is safer to plan with 11%-12% CAGR to stay practical and realistic.

Stock market cycles may not give 15% every year, especially closer to your goal.

Some years can be very strong, but some years may have muted returns also.

Hence, building the right portfolio strategy now is extremely important.

Assessment of Current Fund Choices

Your SIPs are heavily invested in direct plans currently.

Direct plans look attractive due to lower expense ratios at first glance.

However, managing direct funds requires constant monitoring and rebalancing.

If wrong selections are made or changes are delayed, it can harm overall returns.

Regular plans invested through a trusted Certified Financial Planner are better.

CFPs help you align fund selection, asset allocation, and risk management better.

They also guide you during market volatility when emotions can disturb decision-making.

Therefore, shifting to regular plans via an experienced MFD+CFP is advisable.

Further, your current portfolio shows higher weight in mid and small caps.

Mid and small caps can give better returns but come with higher volatility.

Since the goal is medium term (5-6 years), large cap exposure should be strengthened.

Flexi cap funds are fine as they adjust allocation between large, mid, and small caps.

But relying heavily on mid and small cap funds at this stage is slightly risky.

You can still continue small allocation to mid and small cap funds for growth.

However, around 40%-50% portfolio should now lean towards large caps and flexi caps.

Evaluation of Portfolio Diversification

You are holding nine different schemes presently across three categories.

Many of the flexi cap and mid cap funds may have stock overlap.

Overlap leads to concentration risk and reduces real diversification benefits.

It is better to keep 5-6 carefully selected funds in the portfolio at maximum.

Having too many funds does not mean better diversification or higher returns.

Instead, it creates unnecessary tracking headache and inefficiency in performance.

Every fund you own should play a unique role in your portfolio.

One or two funds each from flexi cap, mid cap, and small cap are enough.

Balance your SIP amounts properly among these categories as per goal proximity.

Rebalancing Strategy for Rs. 3 Crore Target

To achieve Rs. 3 crore by 2030, right mix of risk and stability is needed.

Increase allocation towards large cap and flexi cap funds progressively every year.

Reduce mid cap and small cap exposure slowly from 2027 onwards.

By 2028-29, majority portfolio should be in large cap and balanced advantage funds.

This strategy protects your accumulated corpus from market crashes near goal.

Maintain an annual review schedule with a Certified Financial Planner every year.

Rebalancing your SIPs yearly based on market conditions will ensure smoother journey.

For example, if mid caps run up sharply, you can book some profits and move to flexi caps.

Also, avoid stopping SIPs during market downturns, continue without any gap.

Risk Management and Emotional Preparedness

Equity investing will always be volatile in short periods, that is normal.

You should mentally prepare for temporary drops of 20%-30% in tough markets.

Do not panic or redeem investments in such phases without discussing with your CFP.

Always remember that long term investors are rewarded for staying invested during tough times.

Having an emergency fund of 6-9 months expenses separately is also critical.

This emergency fund should be parked in safe liquid instruments like liquid mutual funds.

It ensures that you do not touch your equity portfolio for unexpected cash needs.

Also, maintain your term insurance and medical insurance without any compromise.

Asset Allocation Changes Over Time

In early years, you can afford to be more tilted towards equity investments.

As you move closer to 2028-29, reduce equity exposure gradually.

Build 20%-30% debt allocation by 2029 in safe hybrid funds or short term debt funds.

This protects your Rs. 3 crore target even if market gives negative returns suddenly.

Use Systematic Transfer Plans (STPs) to shift funds from equity to debt slowly.

Do not move large amounts at one go to avoid wrong timing risks.

Expectation Management for Returns

Hoping for 15% CAGR from today till 2030 is on higher side expectations.

Equities in India have given 12%-14% CAGR over very long periods historically.

In 5-6 years, achieving 11%-12% CAGR is more realistic and safer to plan.

If market gives better returns, it will be bonus, but planning should be conservative.

With Rs. 35 lakh corpus and Rs. 1.3 lakh SIP monthly, you are well positioned.

Even if you achieve around 11.5%-12% CAGR, Rs. 3 crore is a very possible target.

Staying disciplined, doing timely rebalancing and risk management will be the key.

Taxation Awareness and Planning

From April 2024, new mutual fund taxation rules are applicable.

Long term capital gains above Rs. 1.25 lakh are taxed at 12.5%.

Short term capital gains are taxed at 20%.

You should plan your fund redemptions smartly around these tax rules in 2030.

If you withdraw step by step across different financial years, tax impact can be lowered.

Your Certified Financial Planner can create the right withdrawal strategy at that time.

What Needs to be Done Immediately

Shift to regular plans via Certified Financial Planner after proper rebalancing.

Reduce number of funds to 5-6 carefully selected ones to avoid overlap.

Balance SIP amounts among flexi cap, large cap, mid cap, and small cap properly.

Start creating an emergency fund separately if not already built.

Set a disciplined annual portfolio review and rebalancing cycle till 2030.

Mentally accept 11%-12% CAGR as the working return estimate for goal planning.

Keep emotional patience during market corrections, continue SIPs without stopping.

Protect your investments by maintaining full insurance coverage for health and life.

Keep final 2 years (2028-2030) focused on protecting capital and not chasing returns.

Have a well-designed exit and withdrawal plan from 2029 onwards through STPs.

Finally

You have already built a strong foundation with SIPs and disciplined saving.

With minor adjustments and careful planning, your Rs. 3 crore goal is achievable.

Focus on maintaining right asset allocation and staying invested through cycles.

Right advice from Certified Financial Planner can optimise your journey further.

Financial freedom comes from patience, discipline, and smart rebalancing at right times.

Stay focused on the journey and not just the destination.

Your financial goals like marriage, home, vacation and other dreams will surely come true.

I sincerely appreciate your systematic approach and clarity at this stage itself.

Best Regards,

K. Ramalingam, MBA, CFP,
Chief Financial Planner,
www.holisticinvestment.in
https://www.youtube.com/@HolisticInvestment